Buffalo at New England

The New England Patriots were soundly beaten on both sides of the ball last week. Any time you allow 28 points to a very poor offense such as the Jets, you realize you’re not getting the push from the defensive line. The Pats have allowed 52 points in two weeks. The offense had success early, but some key parts were missing with Wes Welker playing a limited roll after taking a blow to the head. Perhaps of greater concern is the loss of Kevin Faulk. Regardless of the concerns the betting public is in love with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Just remember that last year an equally soft Bills team came to Foxboro and led the Pats by 5 points with two minutes to go as a 13-point underdog. The Bills’ one strength is their secondary, and they took one in on Brady in that game, forcing the Pats QB to the air 53 times as the Pats struggled to move the ball on the ground at barely over 3 yards per carry. The Bills also dropped a 17-10 game in Buffalo to the Pats, holding Brady and the Pats to 224 total yards. In their last four games vs. the Bills, New England hase scored 13, 20, 24, and 17 points or 18.5 points per game. That puts them on extremely thin ice as a two-TD favorite. I think the loss of Faulk will force Brady into the air more in this one, and with the Pat's defense allowing 30 ppg in their last four games, the Bills will get their share in this one. New England used to have no problem covering big numbers but they are just 2-11 in their last 13 as a double-digit favorite. Under Bill Belichick, the Pats are 9-1 OVER followoing an upset loss by 10+ points. They are also 11-3 OVER following a loss by 2+ touchdowns under the Hoody. I like Buffalo and the OVER in this one.