Buffalo at New England

The AFC East title is on the line here, and this should be a good one. Buffalo has the best point differential in the NFL at +151 while the defense is No. 1 in yards allowed, second in points given up (17.4 per game), and fourth on third-down. QB Josh Allen (31 TDs, 12 INTs, 12 sacks) leads a potent, balanced offense that is ranked fourth on third-down conversions (45.56%). They got bogged down by the windy weather when these teams met three weeks ago and still came close to pulling it out in a 14-10 New England win. The Bills are is 8-3-2 ATS as a road dog. The Patriots come off a tough road trip to Indianapolis, getting pushed around by the physical Colts in a 27-17 loss. New England has injuries to key contributors in No. 1 RB Damien Harris (hamstring), center David Andrews (shoulder), and WR Nelson Agholor (concussion). Buffalo crushed the Patriots when they met here last December, 38-9, with an edge in yards 474-201, including 320 passing yards and four TDs by Allen. Also, the road team is 18-6-2 ATS when these division rivals clash. The Bills offense has cooled a bit of late, however, dropping them from close to 30 points per game down to 22.7 over this span. Their defense remains stout, even on the road (17 points per game allowed). Versus division opponents, the Bills have given up just 10.5 points per game. And over the past three games, New England's offense has come back down to earth as well, dropping from over 27 per game down to 22.3. Plus, their defense is very strong. In division games, they have given up 11.5 per game, and when facing good passing attacks (61%+ completion rate), New England has gone 19-9 to the UNDER over the past two and a half seasons. Under Sean McDermott, the Bills are 13-4 to the UNDER when the total is in this range (42.5 to 49 points). Take Buffalo and the UNDER.