Buffalo at Miami

The Buffalo Bills, after an 0-2 start, have run off four straight wins. The Bills have out-scored those four opponents by 71 points. Nothing will get a team over-valued than this kind of streak, and if you look through NFL history, going back to 1989, a team that wins their last four games by a combined margin of over 70 points are just 97-128-5 ATS in their next game, or cover just 43.1% of the time. Put them on the road as a favorite and that regresses to 32-53-3 ATS. Needless to say there is value on the Dolphins in this one. There is also hidden value on Miami. The Dolphins, despite a 2-4 record, are +0.8 yards per play better than the opponents they have faced from the line of scrimmage. Buffalo is just +0.5 yards per play better. Miami is off a big, season saving win on the road at Pittsburgh 30-15. Miami is also in their third straight home game, and off a big win and with the crowd behind them, I look for the mild upset in this one. Make the play on Miami.