Buffalo at Miami

Buffalo has been playing well over the past five weeks, but ran into a buzz saw last week against the Seattle Seahawks, a team that has simply been on a rampage, scoring 50+ points in two straight weeks. If not for that game, the Bills’ defense would actually rank in the top five in the NFL over the last month. Ryan Tannehill had a big game last week, but that was vs. Jacksonville, a team that has all of two wins this season. Things should be different this week vs. a Bills’ defense that has played well against weak competition this season. The Patriots, Niners and Seahawks have all torched this Bills defense. But outside of those games, Buffalo has held all but two teams to 21 points or less, including 14 vs. this Dolphins team five weeks ago. The Bills’ biggest enemy has been themselves, and Miami has not been turning opponents over at all. The Dolphins’ last four opponents have combined to turn the ball over just one time. The Bills were beaten badly last week, and teams usually play up to their level and beyond after a bad blowout. The Dolphins are now eliminated from the playoffs picture, and with their "Super Bowl" game next week vs. New England, I can see them mailing this one in. The Dolphins are 9-30-1 ATS in their last 40 at home vs. a team with a losing record. Take the points with Buffalo.