Buffalo at Miami

The Bills are a well-disguised good team. How can I call them good when their record reads 3-10? Simply because they have played well above that record and are better than they first appear. The Bills had a hiccup vs. Minnesota a couple games back where they were doused 38-14, but over an eight game stretch discounting that one, this team is right there in every game. Their other seven games show three wins and overtime losses at three top teams on the road in Kansas City, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. They also dropped a 3-point decision to Chicago. That is four teams that will all be playing in January and the Bills took them all to the wire. Ryan Fitzpatrick has made the offense respectable with his 21 TD passes and 85 QB rating. The Dolphins opened the season 2-0, but haven't put together consecutive wins since. The problem is they are a very unbalanced team. The defense plays good most of the time, but the offense is a continuous struggle having scored 15 points or less in more than half their games. If the defense gives up even one TD here, covering 5.5 is going to be a chore. The Dolphins are one of the worst home favorites in the NFL as they are a horrific 6-27 ATS in their last 33 as home chalk. Under Tony Sparano, this team is 0-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bills, despite their vastly improved play, are still under the radar at 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight. I like Buffalo in this one.