Buffalo at Kansas City

Buffalo is 15-3 straight up and 12-6 ATS this season, and it's playing one of the worst point spread teams in the Chiefs, who are 7-10 ATS, including 1-8 ATS their last nine games. The fact is, KC is over-rated. That's right! Based on pythagorean performance, KC is really a 12-win team, very similar to Buffalo. Pat Mahomes (concussion) is still questionable as of this writing and he doesn't get clearance, Chad Henne will get the call. But I like Buffalo here regardless of who is under center for the Chiefs. The Bills depended on their defense to carry them to victory over the Ravens as the offense managed only 223 total yards. Josh Allen completed 23 of 37 for 206 yards with no interceptions. Allen has been exceptional vs. poor passing defenses like KC's. The Bills are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games this season vs. teams that allow 61%+ completions. Meanwhile, KC is 0-8 ATS in the same situation this season! The Chiefs and Bills finished 1-2 in total yards in the regular season and on defense Buffalo was #14 in yards allowed and Kansas City was #16. Buffalo will have to depend on the passing game as they are thin at running back, but Allen has shown he is up to the task. Buffalo gave up 150 rushing yards against Baltimore, which is not bad considering Lamar Jackson was the starting quarterback. Kansas City has no such running threat in Henne or Mahomes, who also is dealing with a foot injury. The teams met in October and the Chiefs won 26-17, but it was Clyde Edwards-Helaire who was the star of that game as he ran for 161 yards. He is questionable (ankle) this week and hasn't played since December 20. Kansas City is 0-5 ATS its last five home games while Buffalo is 8-1ATS this season in expected close games (line of +3 to -3). Take the Bills as Max Play, grabbing +3 or better as insurance (although I do like them on the moneyline as well).