Buffalo at Cleveland

The Browns started the year 0-2. Enter Brian Hoyer and two wins later, there is excitement in Cleveland. A win here gives the Browns their first winning start after five games since 2001. The crowd, and the players and coaches should be amped up. In his two games, Hoyer has thrown for 530 yards and five touchdowns to just three interceptions. Pairing that play with a good defense, and the Browns have reason to be hopeful, especially at home against a banged-up Buffalo team. Both C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson are injured. While they are expected to play, it’s unclear how effective they’ll be against one of the league’s best run-stop units. Cleveland has allowed a league-low 2.9 yards per rush this season. That could put a lot of pressure on E.J. Manuel here. Manuel has been serviceable, but thus far Hoyer is outplaying him. The Bills notched an impressive 23-20 upset win over Baltimore last week, but I think that hurts them here on the road in hostile territory on short rest. Underdogs of more than a field goal that are coming off an upset win follow that up with another win just 25.4% of the time. If they are on the road, their success rate drops to just 21.7%. And, if the upset win last week was at home (as is the case with Buffalo here), the straight-up win rate drops down to 19.4%. Meanwhile, teams like Cleveland that are off a home upset win and are now home again as a favorite of more than a field goal have gone 45-8 straight-up since 1989! This could be a close game and I don’t like the spread much, not if I am laying more than a field goal. But, I do like Cleveland at this short price on the moneyline.