Buffalo at Baltimore

It seems that the Baltimore coaching staff doesn't yet fully trust Joe Flacco. The Ravens let a 10-point lead slip away in the fourth quarter at New England, as the offense became ultra conservative. The Ravens certainly aren't lighting-up the scoreboard, scoring just 18.7 points per game. That doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room when asked to cover a two-TD number. Conservative play opens the door with a big number to topple as a backdoor cover possibility. Teams off a loss that are then favored by double digits in their next game are historically bad bets. These teams have gone 33-61 ATS over the last eight years. I like the Bills to cover this very large number. I also like the OVER in this game. The Bills allowed 30+ in their last game, and the last four times that has happened they have played OVER in their next game. They have also played five of their last six as a dog of +10.5 or more to the OVER as well. The Ravens have played 12-4-2 to the OVER in their last 18 games after allowing 250+ passing yards in their previous game. I’m on Buffalo to cover and the total to finish OVER.