Baltimore at Pittsburgh

The is a big line and it has moved from -10 to -11.5 over the past day. Why is it so big and moving so much? Well, Pittsburgh is a top-level team and Baltimore is a bad team. Baltimore hasn't been able to throw the ball for years. But in years past, at least they had a great running game to offset that and a top-5 defense to keep them in games. This year, their running game is nonexistent and tonight they are without their top two defensive players - Jamal Lewis and Ed Reed. Just as the loss of key personnel has hamstrung the Patriots this year, the absence of these two players will really hurt Baltimore. Heck, these are arguably the best two defenders in the NFL bar none! How bad is Baltimore's offense right now? They are averaging 11.5 points per game (bottom in the league) and have scored no more than 17 in any single game. Jamal Lewis hasn't shown up this year as he's averaging 2.9 yards per carry. Against the last great run defense he faced (Chicago), he rushed for 34 yards on 15 attempts. Pittsburgh shut down LaDanian Tomlinson a few weeks ago so they can certainly handle Lewis, even if he steps up his game tonight. The risk with this kind of spread is, obviously, a letdown by the favored team. Sometimes very big favorites can take a team lightly when they are favored by this much. Not tonight. This is a bitter divisional rivalry and it's on National TV on Monday night. No way Pittsburgh sleepwalks through this one. Cowher said this week, "Every time we play them, I don't care about the records. It's going to be a physical contest and these are two teams that respect each other but have a genuine dislike for one another." And Cowher really wants this one. The Steelers are 1-2 at home this season and that irks him. "We've lost our last two football games at home, and that's disappointing. I know people don't like to come in here and play, but we've got to make it that way and not just assume it's going to take place by just showing up. I don't care if it's Monday night, Sunday night or Sunday afternoon, we've got to come out with that same type of focus, that same type of energy and apply it, and not just assume that because you're playing at home, it's going to be there." Look for the pumped up 8th ranked Steelers defense to completely shut down the 25th ranked Baltimore offense. This Steelers defense has more pride than any in the league and they enjoy playing under the spotlight in big games. They shut down Cincinnati and San Diego - two awesome offenses and should really put the pressure on Baltimore tonight. The Steelers have covered 7 of the last 10 against the Ravens and Pitt is 35-15 ATS under Cowher in October. They are also 16-6 ATS on Monday night over the last 13 years. I think Baltimore will struggle to reach double-digits in this one and with Lewis and Reed out, the Steelers could reach 30. Three stars on the Steelers minus the points.