Baltimore at Pittsburgh

This has been a heated rivalry for a long time, and these two teams often seem to stand in each other's way along the road to and through the playoffs. This has been an evenly matched series as the last 14 games between these teams has seen them go 7-7. It has also been very tight on the field as amazingly 9 of the last 13 meetings have resulted in a 3-point win for one of these teams. It is only fitting that the line here is 3. That offers an immediate edge to the underdog here in a game that always seems to be going down to the wire. But, this line is off. I think Baltimore has a very good chance of winning this game outright. Pittsburgh lost a key weapon in Le'Veon Bell, and the Ravens get back one of their best defenders in Haloti Ngata. Don't underestimate the impact of both of those injuries - they are huge. This is a game of small edges, and having Ngata back will be uplifting for Baltimore while losing Bell will be challenging for Pittsburgh as he had become the key weapon in their offense both on the ground and through the air. Even without Ngata, this Ravens defense is measurably better than Pittsburgh's, especially of late. I think in the end both are going to move the chains through the air. Baltimore should now have the edge in the running game, which can be the difference in a close game as Forsett is now the best back on the field in this game, and Pitt has struggled to stop the run. The Ravens are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. a winning team, and are on a 5-0 ATS playoffs run. If Joe Flacco has a great game, Baltimore wins this easily. If he is average, I still think they can win. If you are feeling gutsy, back them on the moneyline as I predict a close win for the Ravens here. Or, per this official play, take a more conservative approach with the 3 points. Also take the OVER in this game. It may be surprising to learn that a pair of teams both better known for defense have often played well above the total in this series with 13 of the last 19 meetings going OVER the total. And here's another shocker: the Steelers are 17-4 to the OVER in their last 21 playoffs games, including 8-1 under Mike Tomlin! I see Baltimore winning a 27-24 type game. Play on Baltimore and the OVER.