Baltimore at New York

Baltimore is a big road favorite to open the new season, but this is not an explosive offense. It's a ground-oriented offense behind QB Lamar Jackson, who is off a subpar season throwing 16 TD, 13 picks. It doesn't help the passing game that 1,000-yard receiver Marquise Brown departed. The defense allowed 6.0 yards per play last season, the worst in the NFL, and a new coordinator come aboard in with Mike Macdonald. The Ravens are 3-8 ATS as a favorite, including 0-7 ATS as chalk of 3.5 to 9.5 points. New York begins its second season under coach Robert Saleh and QBs Zack Wilson and Joe Flacco. The West Coast ball-control offense has a fine one-two running back punch in Michael Carter (639 yards) and second-round pick Breece Hall, and is upgraded with free agent tight ends C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin. Uzomah had 493 yards with the AFC champion Bengals in 2021, while Conklin had 593 yards with the Vikings. The home team has covered four straight when these teams clash and NFL favorites like Baltimore off a losing season are 135-211 ATS in conference games. Play New York.