Baltimore at New England

Breaking News: The New England Patriots can score. The Pats have scored 30 or more points in 20 of their last 25 games. But 30 isn't the magic number. The magic number is more like 37 as in those 20 games New England has averaged a ridiculous 37.2 points per game. But at least they can play defense... um... not. The Patriots defense has been their Achilles heel all season, giving up over 21 points per game and ranked second to last in the league in yards allowed. It's no surprise then that the Pats have played each of their last seven games to the OVER. The lowest total points scored in any of those last seven games were 51, so all of them have topped the total posted here against Baltimore. The reason to play the UNDER here of course would be Baltimore's defense. They have held opponents to 289 yards and 16.6 points per game. Without this, we would see a much higher total. So can Baltimore stop this juggernaut Patriots offense? I don't see it happening. The Ravens great defensive numbers are bolstered by an incredibly weak schedule. They have in fact played the softest offensive schedule in the NFL this season. They have faced the dead-last offense of the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 32, the No. 31 ranked offense in St. Louis, the No. 30 ranked offense in Indianapolis, the No. 29 ranked offense of the Cleveland Browns twice, the No. 28th ranked offense in Seattle, No. 26 San Francisco and finally the No. 25 New York Jets. That is eight games vs. the eight worst offenses in the league. On top of that they played two games vs. No. 20 Cincinnati, one vs. No. 19 Arizona and one with No. 17 ranked Tennessee. That is 11 games vs. bad or horrible offenses. The best they saw this season was San Diego who punched them for 415 yards and 34 points. New England played a very soft schedule too, as the only team they faced all season that won 10 games was Pittsburgh. Given that New England had trouble stopping these bad teams, I see Baltimore getting their points here as well. The Ravens defense isn't what it once was and on the road, it's really not that stout. In their last 27 road games, the Ravens have gone UNDER the total just eight times! Meanwhile, over the past two seasons, New England is 23-7 to the OVER including 14-4 OVER as a home favorite and 16-4 OVER when instilled as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Play this one OVER the total.