Baltimore at New England

The New England Patriots probably didn't want to see the Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs again, but here they are. The Ravens ended New England's postseason in upset fashion in 2013 on way to Joe Flacco's first Super Bowl. New England had a seven week surge this season that saw them go 7-0 and score just shy of 40 points per game. They are however, just 5-4 in their other nine games. The problem for them is that the 7-0 streak ended a month and a half ago. The 5-4 team scored 21.2 ppg - a night and day difference. In their last five games, New England has averaged just 22.2 per game so this offense is not clicking like it once was. As predicted here, Baltimore upset Pittsburgh last week. Joe Flacco has now had a 100 or better passer rating in six straight playoff games, second only to Joe Montana with eight. A big issue for New England is Tom Brady and his 73.2 passer rating vs. Baltimore, who seems to have his number. That rating falls to 66.2 in his last five at home against the Ravens. Subsequently the Ravens have out-scored the Pats by 4.4 points the last five times in Foxboro. New England is only generating a net positive 21 yards per game this season, and Baltimore generates +22 yards per game, so there is no edge for either team at the line of scrimmage. Right now the Ravens are playing great football, especially on defense. Over their last five games, the Ravens have allowed just 15.4 points per game and it's those kind of defenses that win in January. New England's defense is also playing at a high level, but the point is that these teams are not 7 points apart right now. Playoff teams that average more than 28.3 and are taking on a team off a road win on at least six days of rest are 0-13 ATS in a playoff game, and just 4-9 SU despite being a -8.8 favorite on average. New England themselves are responsible for losing 6 of the 13! Playoff teams that average less than one turnover per game are 2-12 ATS in their playoff game. I think this line is several points off where it should be. Take the points on Baltimore.