Baltimore at Miami

Miami is off to a 3-1 start on the season, but this team was exposed last Monday night in New Orleans, losing by three touchdowns. The Dolphins gave up just shy of 400 yards in that game in the air. Joe Flacco is off of perhaps the worst game of his career last week in Buffalo as he threw five INTs. Perhaps the most amazing thing about that is that the Ravens still almost won the game, losing by just a field goal. I'm sure he can't wait to vindicate himself this week and I think he will have success. If history be our guide, he is in a good situation to do so. Since 1989 teams that lose on the road in their previous game and are playing as a dog on the road are 375-307-10 ATS, covering 55% on the blind. The last decade of NFL action shows these teams in this situation are an amazing 180-114-3 ATS, covering 61.2% of all games. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked a league-high 18 times already so expect the Ravens to send a lot of pressure his way. Baltimore has had to get used to the loss of Anquan Boldin and a hobbled Ray Rice on offense and a lot of changes on defense. The longer the season goes on, the better they will cope. I think the Ravens are bit underrated right now and Miami is a bit overrated. John Harbaugh is 24-14 ATS in Baltimore in expected close games (line of +3 to -3). Take the Ravens here at +3 (buy a half-point if needed).