Baltimore at Miami

Miami is on a 1-4 SU/ATS run with a bad coach, yet they are favored again. They are 1-2 SU/ATS their last three times as chalk. Miami's run defense is last in the league, surrendering 138.5 yards per game -- 163.0 during the past four contests. Miami is 2-6 ATS against a team with a losing record, 1-6 ATS at home, plus 13-38-1 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record. With that bad run defense Miami is 8-2 OVER the total against the AFC while ranked #27 in points allowed (26.1 points per game). Both teams have an outside shot at the playoffs if they run the table, so don't look for the well-coached Ravens to roll over. Baltimore is off a 33-27 win at Cleveland as QB Matt Schaub completed 20 of 34 passes for 232 yards with two touchdowns. Schaub is 5-0 as a starter against the Dolphins, winning both matchups in Miami. Baltimore is 5-2 OVER the total against the AFC dealing with key injuries on defense, plus on a 3-1-1 run OVER. Baltimore has won five straight against the Dolphins with four of those victories coming in Miami. The road team is 4-1 ATS when these teams meet, the dog is 6-2 ATS and the Ravens are 5-0 ATS, including 4-0 ATS at Miami. Take Baltimore and the OVER.