Baltimore at Las Vegas

The average points scored in an NFL has been slowly dropping and the 44.1ppg that have been scored to date this season would be the lowest in many years if it continues. Chances are we will see a rise. Oakland caught a bad break when Derek Carr went down with a back injury and EJ Manuel has taken over. The oakland offense has been limited to just 10ppg in their last 2 but that was vs a much improved Washington defense, and a top rated Denver defense. Baltimore has allowed 70 points the last 2 weeks and Oakland will move the ball a more effectively here. Baltimore had their first 2 games see opponents turn the ball over 10 times, and the defensive numbers are very misleading. Oakland has played 7 straight as a home favorite to the over. Bad offenses generating 4.8 yards per play or worse, tend to improve with time, and the last 52 times a team with that poor an offense took the field they are 38-14 to the over. Make the play on the over.