Baltimore at Kansas City

At the start of the season, most thought the Baltimore Ravens would be playing in January. Few predicted that the Chiefs would be too, let alone hosting a playoff game as a division winner. It has been a long time since the Chiefs hosted a playoff game, as you have to go back to the 2003-04 season. Many forget how huge the home field advantage is for the Chiefs, because it has been so long. We got a glimpse of what a playoffs atmosphere is like in one of the biggest home field advantages in the NFL at Seattle last week. The crowd inspired the Seahawks, who allowed 34+ in each of their last three games, to keep the Rams out of the end zone the entire game. Well I'm here to tell you that Kansas City is even tougher than that. Since 1983, when the Chiefs had a relevant team (finished .500 or better), they have been close to unbeatable at Arrowhead. The record shows them at 7-1 straight-up this year with the only loss in an unmotivated week 17. Overall they are 92-20 here since 1983, which would be 92-18 if you eliminate two meaningless week 17 losses. Put them in this stadium as an underdog and they are 22-2 ATS which includes a mind blowing 20-4 straight up record! If they are a home dog of any size, or a favorite of 4 or less, they are an astounding 46-15-2. This team leads the league in rushing and should find success vs. a Ravens defense that is good but not elite. Baltimore's offense has taken a step back. They averaged 20.7 points per game over their final six games (after averaging 28.7 in their previous six). The Ravens have been a bad team when playing very good opponents, having gone just 1-8 ATS facing a team with a winning percentage of greater than .600 over the last two seasons. Three of their four losses this season came on the road. Asking them to win in this hostile environment is asking a lot - probably too much. The Ravens are 39-19-2 to the OVER after allowing 250+ in the air in their last game, and 12-4 to the OVER in their last 16 after scoring 15 or less in their last game. Meanwhile the Chiefs come in at 18-6-2 to the OVER in that exact same situation. KC is also 6-0 OVER the past three seasons at home vs. winning teams. The Chiefs circle the wagons at home, so I’m taking them in a high-scoring game here.