Baltimore at Indianapolis

The Indianapolis Colts have been very offensive minded the last two weeks as Andrew Luck appears to be locked in, and he has the Colts offense on the move. Luck is the top QB in the league and shows no signs of slowing. Indianapolis has scored over 40 points in each of their last two games. Many think that they are due for a letdown offensively, but history suggests otherwise. Teams playing at home after scoring 40 points or more in two straight games have been 19-7 to the OVER in their next one. In those 26 games, the offense produced an average of 33 points per game. After struggling offensively in their opener vs. defensive-minded Cincinnati, the Ravens have scored 87 points in their last three games at 29 ppg, including 38 against a pretty good Carolina defense last week. Both of these teams have moved the ball well, and the Colts' defense is marginal at best. Indianapolis has played to an 8-1 mark to the OVER in their last nine vs. a winning team, while the Ravens are better defensively at home as their last five on the road have produced four overs. This one goes OVER the total.