Baltimore at Green Bay

The Green Bay Packers have won three straight to get to 7-4 and appear to have turned a corner. If the season ended today, they would have earned one of the NFL Wildcard spots. With a win tonight, the Ravens would move to 7-5 and tie Jacksonville for a spot in the AFC Wildcard race. The Packers may be 7-4 but they have played a very soft schedule, with just four games against teams with a winning record. They have gone 6-1 vs. the likes of Chicago, St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa Bay and Cleveland, but just 1-3 vs. winning teams! The lone win was vs the Cowboys, but they outgained them by just 5 yards in that game. Green Bay will be tested on defense for the first time without Aaron Kampman and Al Harris, both lost for the season. They escaped their first game without the two standout defenders thanks to facing a Lion's team that simply isn't good enough to exploit the weaknesses. The Packers defense statistically has very good yardage numbers, but the offenses they have faced this season tell the real story. Their seven wins on the season came against teams that rank 24th or lower in the entire NFL! The average rank of those teams is 27th, so clearly the defense isn't as good as the numbers make it look. With competition like that, you'd expect the Packers to have a top 5 scoring defense. In fact, they are ranked middle-of-the-road at just 12th. Green Bay has faced four teams that rank 18th or better in offense and three of the four scored 30+ on the Pack. Baltimore's offense ranks 13th so expect them to have success vs. Green Bay tonight. The Ravens defense was playing poorly early in the season, allowing 21.7 ppg (25.4 ppg if you discount the Cleveland game). But, over the last five games the Ravens have resembled last year's team, allowing just 11.6 ppg. That includes four of the five games vs. winning teams. They held these five teams to an average of just 280.4 yards a game. Two of those teams, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, rank in the top seven offenses! So, it's Baltimore, not Green Bay, that brings the better defense into this game. The Packers just 3-7-2 ATS at home vs. teams with a winning record, while the Ravens are at 10-4 ATS in their last 14 on the road. My computer matchup for this game also sees a Baltimore Ravens cover. In the end, what looks like a fairly even matchup really isn't when we dig below the obvious. I believe we get the better team here getting points.