Baltimore at Cincinnati

The Baltimore Ravens have had a good season, but they really have to be concerned about QB Joe Flacco. He has had a tough season, and in his last four, if you forget about the Indianapolis game, he is completing a little more than 50% of his passes, and his yards per pass attempt is down below 6.5. He will be a deciding factor in this one, as the Bengals are ranked No. 4 against the run and should be able to limit Ray Rice, putting more pressure on Flacco. The Ravens defense has shown some chinks of late allowing 100+ on the ground in each of their last two games. Andy Dalton solved the Ravens defense for 370+ yards in the meeting earlier in the season. The Bengals have played poorly as a favorite, but not the case as a short dog where they are now 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 posted as a +3-point dog or less. Go with Cincinnati in this one.