Baltimore at Carolina

I have been backing the Panthers for a couple of weeks now and they have delivered us losses. But, just because a team is down doesn't mean they are out. To win the NFL, you have to be a contrarian and be willing to back the ugliest of ugly. The longer the Panthers lose, the more value there is in backing them and this week we see them as a very rare double-digit home dog. The Panthers have only a single win to show for the season, and have now dropped three straight games by double-digits. They are on to their third QB but how much worse can it get? The Panthers certainly couldn't deliver with Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen at the helm, so with Brian St. Pierre we get a change - which can be good. We also get an extra point or two on the line which certainly could come into play here. The Ravens are off a last drive loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Their defense, once the team's signature, has been faltering as the season progresses. They allowed just 13.6 ppg through their first five games, but have since allowed 23.3 ppg in their last four. That is a full 10 point decline, so laying double-digis on the road is dangerous here, no matter who lines up on the other side. Carolina may not be winning a lot of games but they certainly are positioned to make their backers money in this type of spot. The last eight times they have been posted as an 8-14 point underdog, they are a perfect 8-0 ATS. They have also been posted as a 7+ point dog at home three times in the last three years and are 3-0 ATS in those games. Under John Fox, the Panthers are 24-14 ATS after a double-digit loss. The Ravens are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite. And let's not forget that on the road this season, this team is 2-3 straight-up. This one looks easy for the Ravens, and with no one wanting any piece of Carolina after three straight ugly losses, the biggest public bet of the weekend is on Baltimore. I like the bundle of points on the home dog here.