Atlanta vs. Buffalo

This Atlanta offense has long given up on the season - pretty much when Julio Jones went down. They've scored 13, 10, 13, 28 and 13 points the last five games, and are on a 4-1 run UNDER the total as a result. They are not a quick-strike offense any more and that, coupled with a struggling running game has put a lot of pressure on Matt Ryan. The Falcons have been among the league's top teams in terms of sustaining long scoring drives this season. Atlanta has posted a league-high 26 drives lasting 10 plays or longer. The Bills find themselves sitting at 4-7 in head coach Doug Marrone's first season as injuries have forced them to start three different quarterbacks. They are a conservative, run-first team, ranked No. 27 in the NFL in passing, having their round-robin QBs throwing short, safe passes when they're not running. The UNDER is 13-5 in the Bills' last 18 games in December, and 11-3 UNDER the total following a bye week. In addition, this season the Bills are 4-1 UNDER against teams with losing records. Under Mike Smith, Atlanta is 13-5 UNDER as a dog in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range and 9-2 UNDER in non-conference road games. Look for a conservative game with little scoring. Play the UNDER.