Atlanta at Tampa Bay

Atlanta has quietly won two in a row as an underdog. Mobile QB Marcus Mariota leads an offense that is fourth in the NFL in rushing with 168 yards per game, Top 10 in points (25.8 pg). The Falcons are 43-20 ATS after allowing 150+ yards rushing in the last game, while NFL road dogs that average 24+ points are 92-47 ATS after a win by 3 or fewer points. Tampa Bay has lost two in a row as a favorite each time. There are problems on offense with the ground game averaging 3.1 yards per rush and ranked #16 in points, #24 in total yards, and #24 on third down (34.6%). They really haven't played a complete full game on either side of the line. And NFL home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points are 76-133 ATS after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers. Play Atlanta.