Atlanta at Tampa Bay

Atlanta has more road wins than Tampa Bay has at home. Atlanta had a horrible start, but has turned things around while on a 5-2 SU/ATS run, including a trio of straight-up wins as underdogs of +13, +4, and +10. The Falcons are riding a three-game winning streak beating Carolina (40-20), San Francisco (29-22) on the road, and Jacksonville (24-12). The offense is fifth in the league in total yards (380 per game) with the third-ranked passing attack behind QB Matt Ryan (25 TDs, 14 INTs) and WR Julio Jones (1,316 yards), while the defense has been strong down the stretch on a 6-3 run UNDER the total. Atlanta is also 11-5 UNDER when following a spread cover. Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston (right thumb/knee) has played the last two games with a fracture in his right thumb that has prevented him from gripping a football in practice this week. He has 28 interceptions. Even worse, injuries have sidelined Pro Bowl WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Winston has been throwing to Breshad Perriman, Justin Watson, Ishmael Hyman, and Cyril Grayson. Much of the Bucs' passing game is based on timing routes, and Winston has to believe his receivers are going to win one-on-one matchups and run good routes. They come off a 23-20 loss to Houston as Winston was forced into making bad throws to sub-par receivers. Play Atlanta and the UNDER.