Atlanta at Tampa Bay

The Atlanta Falcons record says 9-2 and that is the best in the NFC. Do I think they are the best team in the NFC? They may be, but the jury is certainly still out. The Falcons continue to grade out negatively on a net offsense/defense basis as they average fewer yards per play on offense than the defenses allows. That they have played well below average on defense is not typical of a 9-2 team. This team is allowing around 6.0 yards per play, placing them among the worst teams in the NFL in that category. Only Washington, Houston and Jacksonville are worse! Their pass defense is especially bad, allowing 68% completions (31st in the league) and 7.3 yards per pass. Come playoff time, this could really bite them. Josh Freeman is a capable quarterback that can exploit this weakness. The Bucs get the Falcons off a big game at home vs. Green Bay and as a result, Atlanta may not be at their best here. The Buccaneers are now 5-0 ATS in their last five games, and they can make a believer out of a lot of people with a signature win here vs. a 9-2 team. The Falcons are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 following three straight ATS wins. Tampa Bay has gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven with the Falcons and I like and I like them here. You can get TB at +3 (-125) or +2.5 -110. Grab the extra point if you can, but I like it either way.