Atlanta at New Orleans

At 5-9, the Falcons are somehow still in the hunt for a playoffs spot. The NFC South has been ultra soft this season, with no team stepping forward to take charge. The Falcons have been somewhat better lately after their 2-6 start and the defense, which is still pretty mediocre, has elevated its status over the last seven games. They did give up 43 points to Green Bay, but held the Pack to 12 second half points and almost came back to win. They have given up 27 or less in the other six - a vast improvement from giving up 28 or more in five of their first seven. New Orleans has not been the same lethal offense we have seen over the last several years as they have been slowly declining each year. Their 30-point regular season games per season have gone from 10, 8, 6, 4 and 3 this year with two games left. And, last week it got to 31 because the Bears went for it on their own 23 near the end of the game and the Saints punched it in on a short field. There is a lot at stake here, which usually means the defenses make some plays. The Falcons come into this game at 43-19-3 ATS in their last 65 after holding an opponent to less than 90 yards rushing. Atlanta has been the best of the bad teams in the NFC South, where they have a clean slate at 4-0. The Saints have lost their home mystique and magic, losing four straight here, and the points aren't coming as easy as they once did. Since 1992, New Orleans is 26-46-2 ATS at home vs. losing teams including 10-16 in the Drew Brees era. Under Mike Smith, Atlanta is at their best following a loss, going 27-15 ATS after a setback. Under Smith this team is also 18-6 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 8-0 UNDER following back to back 400+ yard games. This is a lot of points in a meaningful division game. Play on Atlanta and the UNDER in this one.