Atlanta at Miami

Miami is going to surprise some teams this year. We were on them last week and they came away with the win over Indianapolis. The Fins were just 7-9 last season but consider that they held their opponents to 14 points or less six times last year. So far in 2013 they have allowed just 30 total points. Atlanta and Matty Ice like to throw the ball which they have done 67% of the time this season. But, that plays into Miami's strength. The Dolphins give up a lot of yards in the air, but they stall drives with 9 sacks, and a QB rating against them at #3 best in the league at 60.20. Atlanta has gotten confident when they hold opponents' ground attack to 90 yards or less by following with a 42-16-3 mark to the UNDER. The Dolphins have tightened things up defensively after allowing 250+ in the air to come back and play to a 40-17 mark to the UNDER in their last 57. Over the past three seasons, the Falcons are 17-7 to the UNDER following a win. Miami is 9-1 UNDER as a favorite over the same period. Take this game to go UNDER the total.