Atlanta at Miami

Nick Saban hasn't shown he can win in the preseason. His team is 1-3 yet they are favored by over a field goal in this game. Jim Mora Jr., on the other hand is 3-1 this year. I've got a bucket full of situations favoring the Falcons in this game including the fact that underdogs with a winning record cover about 77% of the time vs. losing teams in the preseason. If you exclude winless teams from the equation above, the win rate for the underdog goes to about 9 out of 10. Also, while stats don't usually matter in the preseason, major rushing yard differences do. Teams that have outrushed their opponent by 40 or more yards/game on the season are 46-19 (71%) ATS since 1993. Saban isn't running the ball while Mora is. That's a recipe for an Atlanta win. Back Atlanta plus the points for two stars.