Atlanta at Jacksonville

Jacksonville is getting a lot of notoriety after putting up 51 points last week, but they are still 5-8 on the season and .500 at home. The Jaguars are 6-14-1 ATS when following a victory and 3-7-1 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record. The Jacksonville defense is #21 in yards allowed, #31 in points surrendered, yet they are favored. Into town comes Atlanta, playing good defense but hungry for a win. Atlanta has allowed 23, 20, 24, 17, 23 and seven points in six of the last seven contests, as part of an 11-2 run UNDER the total for the season. Atlanta has averaged 13.7 points in the last seven games after scoring 30.5 in the first six, so facing a terrible defense is a big plus. Atlanta has plenty of offensive talent with QB Matt Ryan (17 TDs, 14 INTS) and Julio Jones, who is the league leader with 1,426 receiving yards. The Falcons are 18-7 ATS after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game, plus 16-6-1 ATS after gaining fewer than 250 total yards in their previous game. Atlanta is also on a 19-6-1 run UNDER the total, including 17-5 UNDER after a defeat. Falcons QB Ryan threw three TDs in a 41-14 rout of Jacksonville in the most recent meeting, so grab the visitors in a lower-scoring tilt than oddsmakers anticipate. Play Atlanta and the UNDER.