Atlanta at Denver

The Atlanta Falcons started last season at 5-0 and quickly fell apart to finish 3-8 miss the playoffs. They are 3-1 to start this season, and the offense is clicking by far better than any other NFL team. The Ryan to Jones connection is becoming the most dangerous in the league. The Denver offense has been average from the line of scrimmage, while the back seven on defense is elite, which will provide the opening I see here for the Falcons on the ground. The Falcons have generated 4.7 yards per carry against teams allowing 4.0. The Broncos are a half yard worse stopping the run vs. lesser running games. Matt Ryan has actually played to a 12-13 SU record against teams that are .750 or better on the season, with a passer rating of 97.8, so he rises to the occasion vs. the better teams. Teams that start the season at 4-0 SU/ATS cover just 42% of he time in game five. These teams are pretty close right now, and more like a FG-spread type of game, so the line value is on the Falcons. Grab the points and play on Atlanta.