Atlanta at Carolina

The Carolina Panthers had one of the league's best defenses last year, but defections and injuries have taken their toll. As a result hey have been getting destroyed on that side of the ball this season, allowing 28.1 points per game (28.7 over their last three). The Panthers are negative on defense to both the run and the pass, while the offense is just as bad - negative running and passing. Carolina has allowed 37 points or more in five of their last eight games. The Atlanta defense is just as bad, but Carolina doesn't have enough offense to fully exploit it. The Falcons' offense is slightly above average and certainly has the capacity to put up more points in this one. This has been a sweet spot for Matt Ryan who owns a 15-4 straight-up record vs. defenses that allows 25 to 31 points per game in his career. He also owns a 102.5 career passer rating when taking on bad teams (teams with a winning percentage from .250 to .350). Under Mike Smith, the Falcons are an incredible 48-14 straight-up as a favorite and 31-9 vs. losing teams. Cam Newton is not getting protection and doesn't not look healthy, and neither does Carolina. Atlanta takes this one.