Arizona at Chicago

The Cardinals were a difficult team to beat at home a year ago on their way to the Super Bowl, but they struggled on the road. This year they have reversed their fortunes and own a 3-0 mark on the road. The Bears have yet to lose at home this season also at 3-0, so something has to give here. Arizona was soundly embarrassed last week, losing by 13 points as a double-digit favorite. As a result, I expect a motivated and focused effort from them this week. The Arizona defense has stepped-up this season. The key has been their ability to limit opposing running backs to 96 yards per game. They defense is often setting up third and long, and they have done a great job as they are allowing just a 32% conversion rate on third down, which is good for third in the entire NFL. The Bears’ defense is rated No. 11, but over the last four weeks they own wins over Detroit and Cleveland while losing to Cincinnati and Atlanta - allowing a combined 66 points in the process. Without Brian Urlacher, the Bears are yielding 40% on third down, and have struggled vs. good offenses since their big win over Pittsburgh in week two. The Cards seem to be getting up for games vs. the better teams and as an underdog this season they stand at 3-0 ATS running their streak to 6-0 ATS when posted as a dog. They have been at their best after a straight-up loss where they are now 16-7 ATS in their last 23 following a loss. The Bears are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven against a winning team and after a straight up win, they are a dismal 7-18-2 ATS. Chicago needed five Cleveland turnovers last week to turn in a convincing win. If you look at the five games they've played outside of the cupcakes in Detroit and Cleveland, Chicago is getting outscored on average 16-24. I'm going with Arizona in this one.