Arizona at Buffalo

This is the squarest play on the board this week, courtesy of over 80% of the betting public buying the Arizona Cardinals as a road favorite. Arizona was one of the best teams in football last season, and this season they opened at home vs.Tom Brady-less New England team, and proceeded to lose. Arizona then took advantage of five Tampa Bay turnovers last week on the way to a 40-7 rout. How will that affect this week? Early in the season, teams that cover by 14 points or more, as a big favorite (-7 or more), and had the turnover advantage are 51-81 ATS in their next game. Such teams are generally overrated in their next game as the public lines up behind them, and the bookmakers shade the line. The reality is that this line should be a field goal or less, so we have line value on the Bills. Buffalo always seems to have high expectations coming into the season, but tend to never measure up. They have gone 16 seasons with just one winning campaign, and that was 9-7. They are in their best, most comfortable, and dangerous spot as they are playing at home as a dog. In that situation, they are 12-5 ATS since 2011. If you have a short memory, the last two NFC teams to come here as a favorite were the 2013 Panthers who finished 12-4 and lost outright, and the 2014 Packers, also finished 12-4 and lost outright in Buffalo. If you handicap this game on the numbers, Arizona is going to win. But, if you handicap this one on history, Buffalo gets the money at the very least, and when you add in that this is the biggest public play this week, there is only one way to go. Take the Bills and the points.