This pick was released to clients on July 30, 2012 at 6:24PM ET.
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Arizona at Atlanta

October 1, 2006
img1:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

This game won't be pleasant for the Arizona Cardinals. Mired in a QB controversy after Kurt Warner's error-prone play thus far, they are walking into the Lion's Den here. Atlanta was bitch-slapped by New Orleans on Monday Night. If you watched the game, you knew, even before the pregame show was over, that Atlanta had no shot. The emotional level of the Saints and their fans was stratospheric. They were going to win that game against any team on Monday night. But now Atlanta is mad. They are mad at how they played and mad at losing. They are a very solid team this year. Throw out last game when assessing the Falcons. Prior to that game, they beat Carolina and Tampa Bay by a combined score of 34-9. Their defense is mean and they'll bring their A-game this Sunday. One of the reasons for backing New Orleans last week was the absence of John Abraham from the Falcon's defense. He has been the difference this year and he is expected back Sunday. If Kurt Warner makes mistakes in the first half of this game, we could see Matt Leinart and that will be disasterous for Arizona. The Cards are 2-9 ATS in the underdog role the past two seaons. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS off a road loss and 7-0 ATS after a loss of any kind by 10+ points over the past three seasons. I also have a trend involving favorites the week before their bye that is close to perfect over the past ten years. Teams going into their bye want to go in on a positive note for obvious reasons. When they are favored, they have the tools to do it. They are focused and diligent, leaving nothing on the field and looking ahead to nothing. Added to this is the fact that Atlanta was embarrassed on national TV last week. Huge Falcons bounce back here.

3 units on Atlanta -7 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73)
Result:
WIN
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