New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers

New York star QB Aaron Rodgers (9 TDs, 5 INTs) got an early Christmas present as the Jets traded for his old partner, wide receiver Davante Adams. The offense is 13th in the NFL on third down (40.96%), while the defense is second in yards allowed, seventh in points, and ninth on third down (33.78%). Pittsburgh's offense has slumped to 24th in total yards and 19th on third down. It's a conservative offense with QB Justin Fields (5 TDs, one pick) averaging 4.0 yards per rush. The Steelers have lost two of three despite being favored in all three. Play New York. 

Pittsburgh suffered an ugly loss to Cleveland last Thursday night and the Steeler fans can't wait for Mike Tomlin to replace Mitch Trubisky with Kenny Pickett.. However, even if that happens the Steelers have problems on the offensive line and they are second-to-last in the NFL with only 272.7 total yards per game and #28 with an average of 182.7 passing yards. Surprisingly, the Jets are #9 in total yards (370.0 per game) and #5 in passing yards (286.0). New York did lose 27-12 to Cincinnati mainly due to four turnovers, including two interceptions by Joe Flacco, who threw for 285 yards, but the Jets were only outgained 330-328. New York has gone UNDER four of its last five games after allowing at least 250 passing yards its previous game and Pittsburgh is an incredible 40-16-1 UNDER its past 57 games against teams with losing records. Also, the Steelers have stayed UNDER their last five home games and they are 1-6-1 ATS their past eight games versus teams with losing records. Look for another grind-it-out matchup and play the Jets ATS as a Max Play and the UNDER as a Max Play.

Pittsburgh is hanging on to the sixth playoff seed, but it's going to have to come up with a way to score more points as the Steelers have averaged only 15.5 points their last six games. Devlin Hodges has done his best to keep his team in games, but he threw four interceptions against Buffalo although a couple were in desperation time. The Steelers are #30 in the league in total yards and #31 in passing yards. New York understandably loss to the red-hot Ravens, but the Jets still have won four of their last six games. Le'Veon Bell will face his former teammates for the first time. The Steelers have scored no more than one offensive touchdown in six of their last seven games. Sam Darnold went 18-of-32 for 218 yards and two touchdowns against Baltimore and he now has a 61.7-percent completion rate and 2,642 passing yards in 11 games this season. Darnold has shown improvement from earlier in the season as he has thrown only four picks his last seven games. This one goes to the wire, so play the Jets.

We've been fading the Jets a lot lately and will continue to do so here. Their issues are far and wide. They have no quarterback, their coach is on the hotseat, and their secondary is atrocious. The injuries have gotten so out of hand that they actually used a wide reciever in one game in their secondary. That may be bad news for them this week as they take on a Pittsburgh team that has been shredding defenses of late. Big Ben is arguably the most accurate passer in the NFL when it comes to the long ball, and he is not afraid to take multiple shots downfield. Under Rex Ryan, New York is 6-15 ATS at home vs. good passing teams like Pittsburgh (teams completing 61%+ of their passes). The Jets' lone win on the season came in the opener against winless Oakland, but have gone on to drop eight straight. Not only that, they have allowed 24 points or more in all eight games since the opening day win. Geno Smith or Michael Vick are pretty much one in the same. Both have passer ratings in the 60s and neither does a good job of taking care of the ball. Antonio Brown should see a lot of balls thrown his way. He already has 71 grabs on the season, and is four yards shy of 1,000 yards and he should have a lot of success in this game. The Jets just don't have enough on either side to stay in the hunt in this one. They are one of the worst teams in the league and this spread doesn't quite reflect that. Lay the points on Pitt.