New Orleans Saints vs Philadelphia Eagles

To me, the New Orleans Saints have the most impressive numbers through two weeks. The New Orleans offense has scored 91 points and has been held without points on just one possession this season. Returning to the final regular season game last year, this team has averaged 46 points per game. This season, Derek Carr has completed 77% of his passes with five TD's and one INT, and has a QB rating 142. These numbers have bettors lining up on the Saints, but the Eagles will take on the challenge at home. The Eagles are 1-1 to start the season, and Jalen Hurts looks like the running QB we have seen, outside of injuries that held him back last year. The Eagles are not shy about winning on the road as they have won 18 road games in the previous three seasons. The only team with more is the Kansas City Chiefs, with 20. While the Saints have played almost perfect football, the Eagles are 1-1 and have yet to deliver a complete "A" game. The Saints will get their points, but I feel like this is an excellent letdown spot for a contrarian play on the Eagles when they finally do bring that "A" game so take the Eagles ATS and also back the OVER.

The math is simple for the Philadelphia Eagles. A win and they clinch the NFC East, as well as clinching home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. While QB Jalen Hurts practiced for the first time since his shoulder injury, he was limited, and he remains questionable vs the Saints. If he does go, it is probably safe to say he will not be running as much as he usually does. The Saints are 6-9 and still technically alive for a playoff spot. New Orleans enters this game very banged up, and they don't want to get into a shootout with the Eagles. Their best bet is short passes and a lot of running. That has been what New Orleans has been doing anyway as just 1 of their last 7 games has seen both teams combine to reach 40 points. Make the play on the UNDER.

This is the classic inside out game between Philadelphia and New Orleans. The Eagles appear to have crash-landed off of four straight losses, while the Saints just keep on rolling even without Drew Brees under center. This is the hold-your-breath spot on the NFL schedule in which what looks absolutely wrong but in the contrarian NFL, is the absolute right choice. You can't argue that the Saints allowing 8.5 points per game in their last five is going to win easily. There is a wildcard here, though. Jalen Hurts is getting the start for the Eagles, and he is a huge running threat. And with little film on him, he could turn out to make a difference. Hold your breath and make the play on Philadelphia.

Philadelphia has a chance to advance to the NFC Championship game while getting revenge for a humiliating loss at New Orleans in November. The Eagles appeared to be dead in the water following that 48-7 defeat, but they have won six of seven since. That includes Sunday's 16-15 thriller at Chicago when Cody Parkey's 43-yard field goal attempt in the final seconds was tipped and clanked off both posts. Nick Foles was clutch again, completing 25-of-40 for 266 yards although the Eagles survived his two interceptions. Philly went UNDER by 10.5 points after going UNDER by 18.5 points in the regular season finale against Washington. The New Orleans offense hasn't been as prolific later in the season as it was earlier. They averaged only 19 points their last five games and at one point they had a string of five straight UNDERS. Carolina and Dallas has shown how to keep Drew Brees somewhat in check when they held the Saints to 12 and 10 points, respectively. Obviously, the Eagles' defense will make some adjustments from its first meeting with the Saints. The UNDER is 6-2-1 in Philly's last nine January games and it's 11-5-1 UNDER its last 17 playoff games overall. The Saints have stayed UNDER in five of their last six versus NFC teams. New Orleans covered just one of their last five regular season games and the Eagles have covered seven of their last nine playoff road games. This is an excellent opportunity for an outright upset and there are three winning ways to go in this matchup: take the Eagles to cover, to win straight-up and also play the UNDER.