New England Patriots vs New York Jets

New York continues to be overpriced as the Jets are favored by more than a touchdown in a game matching two of the worst in the NFL. They were trounced 37-15 by Pittsburgh, which isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut and the Aaron Rodgers experiment is fizzling as he clearly is way beyond his best days. Rodgers finished 24 of 39 with two interceptions and the much-anticipated acquisition of Davante Adams produced three catches for 30 yards. The Jets are 1-12 on the road against New England and they have lost 15 of the past 17 meetings. The Patriots, of course, have not been any better and they come off a 32-16 loss to Jacksonville in London. However, they are a live underdog getting this many points at home against a 2-5 team. Drake Maye was adequate against the Jaguars completing 26 of 37 for 276 yards with no picks, but the Patriots need to get the rushing game going. The past five meetings have gone UNDER, including last year's two games that went UNDER by an average of 10.8 points. The past four meetings have produced a grand total of 85 points. Take the Patriots and the UNDER.

New England lost to Seattle in heartbreak fashion after the Patriots had defeated Cincinnati in the season opener. Jason Myers kicked a tying field goal with 55 seconds left in the fourth quarter and a winning 31-yarder in overtime for the Seahawks. However, first-year coach Jerod Mayo has the Patriots playing well especially in the running game as they have averaged 177.5 rushing yards this season. New York has allowed an average of 155 yards on the ground and Aaron Rodgers has not been overly productive, although the Jets did get a 24-17 victory over Tennessee. Rodgers threw for 176 yards and two TDs with mostly short passes, and the defense sacked Titans QB Will Levis four times. Jacoby Brissett has been adequate for the Patriots and finished 15 of 27 for 149 yards and no interceptions against Seattle. New England is 5-0-1 ATS its past six games as an underdog and the Jets are 0-6 ATS their past six Thursday games. New York is 0-4-1 ATS following a win, 1-6 ATS the past seven meetings, and 4-16 ATS its past 20 September games. The Patriots have won 15 of the past 16 meetings outright. Take the Patriots.

An ugly game featuring uglier offenses. New York has the second-worst offense in total yards gained, the fourth-fewest points scored (15.7 per game), and last on third down (26.36%). Their quarterbacks have combined for 11 TDs, 15 picks, and 63 sacks. At least the defense is good, fifth in the NFL in yards allowed. The Jets are 9-2 UNDER the total versus the AFC East and 24-10 UNDER after allowing seven or more yards per play in the last game. New England has the fifth-worst offense in total yards gained, last in points scored (14.6 per game), and the third-worst on third down (31.73%). Their quarterbacks have combined for 16 TDs and 19 picks. The defense is sixth in the NFL in yards allowed and 13th on third down. The Patriots are 14-5 UNDER the total after a defeat and the last two meetings between these rivals have been final scores of 10-3 and 15-10. Take New York/New England UNDER the total. 

It's the fifth road trip in nine games for New York as they come off of a bye. They've been competitive with defense as QB Zach Wilson has more interceptions (5) than TD passes (4). They've won five of six but the lone loss was at home to these Patriots, who really out-coached and out-schemed them that day. Wilson threw 3 interceptions and New England had the edge in rushing yards 127-51 as the Pats rallied from a 10-3 early deficit to outscore the Jets 19-0 before allowing a late garbage-time TD. The Jets have lost 13 of their last 15 against the AFC East. They come off a win over Buffalo but winning NFL teams off an upset win over a division rival as a home dog are 37-87 ATS. New England often starts slow until Bill Belichick maneuvers the best pieces in place and the Patriots are on a 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS run. The defense is 12th in total yards allowed, sixth in points surrendered (18.4 pg), and 13th on third down. The Patriots are 60-33 ATS as home chalk of 7 points or fewer, 53-33 ATS after a victory by 21+ points, and 141-108 ATS in the second half of the season. Play New England.