Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers

A long road trip for San Francisco and a short week, having played on Monday Night. Minnesota plays its home opener, an underdog despite a dominant defensive performance in a 28-6 victory at the Giants. QB Sam Darnold was very good and the defense allowed 240 yards while stuffing the run (74 rush yards allowed, 3.5 yards per carry). The Vikings are 6-0-1 ATS after a win. Minnesota has won five in a row at home against the 49ers and is 10-1 ATS at home versus San Francisco. Play Minnesota.

San Francisco had an extra day to think about losing 19-17 to Cleveland as a 8.5-point favorite in its worst offensive showing of the season. Injuries to Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel had a lot to do with it and McCaffrey is expected to play tonight. The 49ers are 5-0 ATS their past five games following an ATS loss and Minnesota is 0-6 ATS their past six home games and 0-5 ATS overall after a win. The Vikings have gone UNDER four consecutive games and their past four Monday games have stayed UNDER. QB Kirk Cousins is 2-10 straight up on Monday nights. Minnesota will be without Justin Jefferson, who will miss at least four weeks with a hamstring injury. Brock Purdy figures to bounce back from the worst start of his career after winning his first 10 starts. Minnesota's only wins this season have been against Carolina and Chicago, who have a combined record of 2-11. The 49ers are No. 2 in the league in scoring defense at 14.5 points per game and they are 15-7 UNDER following an ATS loss. The Vikings are 9-4 UNDER as home underdogs, 4-10-2 ATS against NFC opponents and 3-8-1 ATS their past 12 games overall. Take the 49ers and the UNDER.

San Francisco got into a shootout with Green Bay in Week 1, 28-21. But that's not the style of coach Kyle Shanahan, who is a proponent of ball control and a tough defense. That defense was Top 10 in the NFL last season in yards and points allowed. The 49ers allowed 13 points in three preseason games last August, including a 15-10 Week 2 win at the Chargers in their lone road NFLX game. They've also allowed 15.6 points per game over their last eight preseason tilts. Minnesota won't risk any injuries to Kirk Cousins and the QB rotation drops off sharply with Sean Mannion and Kellen Mond. It's also a short week having played the lone Sunday game leaving less time for offensive prep and practice. They have a new playbook with a new coach in Kevin O'Connell, who was the offensive coordinator for the Rams the last two years. It will take time for the offense to absorb all the new wrinkles, so anticipate more of a defensive duel than the oddsmakers expect. Take the UNDER.

This is an evenly matched game between two great defenses and ball-control offenses. Minnesota's balanced offense is sixth in rushing yards (133.3 per game), #10 in yards per play (5.83), eighth in points per contest (25.4). They outplayed the Saints for most of the game in a 26-20 victory as a +7 dog. They ran for 136 yards and held the Saints to 324 total yards, forcing two turnovers. Minnesota's defense is fifth in points allowed and sacks (48), 16-7 UNDER the total as an underdog, 17-8-1 UNDER as a road dog, and 13-6-1 UNDER in January. This veteran team is well-coached and not intimidated by playing in hostile environments, winning at Dallas (28-24) and New Orleans (26-20 in OT), and losing close ones at Seattle (37-30) and Kansas City (26-23). They match up well with a San Francisco offense that is second in rushing (144 yards per game), while the defense is eighth in points surrendered (19.4 pg), second in yards allowed, and tops against the pass. These teams rank second and third with the highest run-percentage rate in the NFL, so look for a grind-it-out, close, low scoring game -- just like last year. The Vikings beat the 49ers last season, 24-16, as Kirk Cousins outplayed Jimmy Garoppolo (three picks). The talented visitors are more than capable of pulling off another win. Play Minnesota ATS, as well as on the moneyline and also take the UNDER.