Miami Dolphins vs Seattle Seahawks

Miami has lost quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but backup Skylar Thompson has played well filling in for him. This team has a lot of talent, including speedy WR Tyreek Hill. In Thompson's three career starts for Miami, Hill had 21 receptions for 269 yards. Miami went 3-1 when Skyler was forced to step in for Tagovailoa in 2022, including a 34-31 playoff loss at Buffalo as a +14 underdog. Miami's defense is fourth in the NFL in yards allowed and seventh on third down (26.32%). Seattle's defense is 17th on third down and is getting run on surrendering 142 yards rushing per game. RB Ken Walker III is banged up, missing last week's game, and Miami has covered four of the last five at Seattle. Play Miami. 

Seattle has won and covered all three games this season and Russell Wilson became the first quarterback to have at least four touchdown passes in each of the first three games of a season. Wilson was 27 of 40 for 315 yards and came up with a big throw to DK Metcalf with 1:47 remaining to seal the deal in a 38-31 win over the Cowboys. The game wouldn't have been that close if Metcalf hadn't started celebrating too early and fumbled away a sure touchdown earlier in the game. The Seahawks are averaging 37.0 points, which is #2 in the league and they are #9 in total yards gained. Miami is #26 in yards gained on offense although it does come off a 31-13 win over Jacksonville on Thursday night. Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 18 of 20 for 160 yards and two touchdowns. Seattle doesn't have the great defense we've seen from Seahawks teams in recent years, but they still have the overall talent edge in this matchup. Seattle used to be a team known for covering at home and not so much on the road, but that has changed as the Seahawks are 12-4-1 ATS their last 17 road contests. The Dolphins are 0-5 ATS the last five years in Week 4. Take the Seahawks.

Adam Gase begins his first season with Miami with the goal of improving the offense. And if anyone can do it, it's Gase, who learned under Mike Martz of "The Greatest Show on Turf" fame. Ryan Tannehill threw for 4,208 yards last season in spite of a leaky offensive line which figures to be better with the addition of rookie Laremy Tunsil. Gase wants Tannehill to be able to release the ball more quickly with screen passes and open wide receivers with Jarvis Landry as the main target. Arian Foster will start at running back, and Jay Ajayi will be the backup. Vance Joseph is the new defensive coordinator and will look to get more out of the talent on hand, especially Ndamukong Suh, who after signing a huge contract had an underachieving season. The secondary will be improved with the arrival of Byron Maxwell and rookie Xavien Howard. Miami went UNDER the total its last three games and six of its last eight. Seattle went UNDER five of its last six games in 2015. The Seahawks were only 4-4 ATS at home, which means they have lost some of their mystique playing at CenturyLink Field. Seattle has to replace Marshawn Lynch, and the offensive line is in disarray after losing two starters to free agency, all of which will make Russell Wilson's job more difficult. The Seahawks ranked second in the league in yards allowed and first in scoring defense. The Seahawks are 1-8 UNDER as home favorites of fewer than 13 points in non-conference games. They're laying too many points in this matchup. Play the Dolphins and the UNDER.

The Miami Dolphins have had a schedule handed to them on a silver platter and have sadly squandered the opportunity. After losing their opener to Houston, the Dolphins have played six straight games vs. teams that were .500 or less. Here they stand at 4-6, which will tell you that a lot is lacking here, and it is getting worse. The Dolphins played in Buffalo last week, and against one of the NFL's worst defenses they managed to get into the end-zone just once in the middle of the fourth quarter. This was after a less than stellar Tennessee team kept them out of the end-zone the entire game. Prior to that game, the Fins found the end-zone two times against another poor defense in Indianapolis. The bottom line is that you have to score in this league to win, and the Dolphins are making it look awfully hard. Now they have to face one of the top defenses in the NFL in Seattle, a team that is off a bye and is ready to make a playoffs run. The Seahawks’ offense is coming to life with 28 points per game in their last three as Russell Wilson matures into a capable NFL QB. Miami has played poorly at home where they are 22-52-1 ATS in their last 75 home games. Seattle gets the call.