Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

The weather is going to be a serious influence on this game. The rain will be a factor, but a bigger factor will be the wind that is projected to be in the 20s sustained, and gusting up to 46 MPH. That is certainly going to influence how this game is played, and I think taking downfield threats away from Miami is going to make this into a running game with a tightly stacked box from both defenses. When the weather and wind influence a game as much as it looks like it will here, it is very difficult for a big favorite to get margin. I'm going with the NY Jets.

What was a promising season for New York has turned into a nightmare especially on the offensive side and the Jets have scored a total of only 24 points their past three games and all were losses without covering the spread. The Jets have gone UNDER five games in a row and they are so desperate at the quarterback position that they are starting perennial backup Tim Boyle this week. Zach Wilson has been a disaster and was benched in the third quarter in favor of Boyle, who was 7 of 14 for 33 yards with an interception as the Jets lost 32-6 at Buffalo. The Dolphins are 7-0 ATS against teams with losing records and 5-1 ATS following an ATS loss. New York has gone UNDER eight consecutive games versus AFC East opponents and the Jets are 5-0 UNDER after losing by more than 14 points. Miami has stayed UNDER by an average of 13.7 points its past two games. Miami is 8-2 ATS the past 10 meetings. Take the Dolphins and the UNDER as a Max Play.

The Miami Dolphins have been a scary rollercoaster ride all season. That rollercoaster ride has turned ugly. The Dolphins opened the season with 3 straight wins, followed by 3 straight losses. They then won their next 5 and have since lost 5 straight. The bleeding has gotten worse and they are down to 3rd string QB Skylar Thompson. They need to win and have New England lose to make the playoffs. The Jets were eliminated last week with their loss to Seattle but would like nothing more than to knock off Miami and keep them out of the playoffs. A team in the final week of the season that has a better-winning percentage than their opponent is just 205-260-11 ATS. Make the play on the NY Jets.