Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Los Angeles has won its first two games with balance on offense behind QB Justin Herbert (3 TDs, 1 INT) and RB J.K. Dobbins (266 yards). The ground game is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and Herbert has been sacked just two times. The defense is second in yards allowed, second on third down (23.08%), and No. 1 in points given up (6.5 per game). Pittsburgh may be 2-0 but the offense is averaging 15.5 points behind QB Justin Fields, the guy the Bears bailed on. Even the running game is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. The offense is 30th in total yards and 26th in points. Back the improved visitors with the established outstanding quarterback. Play Los Angeles. 

I've been fading the Steelers a lot this season but now it's time to pull the ole switcheroo. Los Angeles is off to a disappointing start with a 2-3 record and 1-3-1 ATS. The Steelers look to avenge a 33-30 loss to the Chargers in December in a game that went OVER by 10.5 points. Pittsburgh went OVER in its 26-23 overtime loss to Baltimore and lost its quarterback, Mason Rudolph, to a concussion. However, backup Devlin Hodges threw for 68 yards and directed a couple of scoring drives. Hodges was a four-year starter at Samford and he broke Steve McNair's NCAA FCS record for passing yards with 14,584. There is an outside chance that Rudolph will be ready for this game. The Chargers come off a 20-13 loss to previously winless Denver and they turned the ball over twice inside the Denver five-yard-line. Philip Rivers went 32-of-48 with two interceptions and Melvin Gordon ran for 31 yards in his return from a holdout. Pittsburgh is 7-1-1 ATS when following an ATS win and 49-24-2 ATS its last 75 October games. The Chargers are 11-28-1 ATS their last 40 home games. This is a low posted total due to Pittsburgh's QB situation, but even if Rudolph can't go, Hodges is capable of putting points on the board. Play the Steelers as a Max Play and the OVER.

The Los Angeles Chargers have won seven of their last eight games (5-3 ATS) and bounced back from a turnover-filled loss to Denver with a dominating 45-10 win over Arizona. Philip Rivers completed his first 25 passes and was 28-of-29 for 259 yards and three touchdowns in only three quarters. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger uncharacteristically threw an interception in the end zone that sealed the victory for Denver on Sunday.  Big Ben was 41-of-56 for 462 yards with two interceptions and Pittsburgh rushed only 16 times for 75 yards. The Steelers are #6 in the league in yards allowed (325.1 per game) while allowing 22.6 points, but the Chargers are no worse, allowing 334.8 yards and just 19.9 points per game. The Chargers are 5-2 ATS their last seven road contests and the Steelers are 3-7 ATS their last 10 home games and Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS its last six December games. Los Angeles has gone UNDER four of its last five games overall and the Chargers are 21-6-1 UNDER their last 28 December games. Also, the UNDER is 35-16-1 in the Chargers' last 52 games after a win dating to previous seasons and they have stayed UNDER eight of their last 11 road games. Play the Chargers and the UNDER.

The San Diego Chargers have been strong offensively, and QB Phillip Rivers has a better than 105 passer rating to start the season. It seems like when Rivers is healthy early in the season the Chargers thrive, and he does have some help in rookie RB Melvin Gordon with has 56 carries for 228 yards at 4.2 yards per carry. The bigger problem is a defense that has surrendered 24 or more points in all four games. The Pittsburgh offense has gotten a lot more conservative with Michael Vick at the helm, but he is not turning the ball over, and DeAngelo Williams and Le'veon Bell have produced over 400 yards on the season by land. While Vick didn't get a lot of downfield looks in his first start, he certainly has the weapons to take a few shots in this one, especially against a Chargers defense that has struggled in all four games. The Steelers enter at 8-2 to the OVER following a loss in their last 10. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 30-17 OVER when coming off a division game including 13-2 OVER off a division loss. Look for a more open attack by the Steelers as Vick has a game under his belt and the playbook expands with the extra week of practice. Make the play on the OVER.