Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins

The Las Vegas offense has been overrated by oddsmakers all season at 8-2 UNDER the total. At least the defense has turned things around under the new coaching staff allowing six and 12 points in the last two games moving up to 13th in the NFL in points given up (20.5 per game). They're sticking with young QB Aidan O'Connell (2 TDs, 3 INTs) and he gets little help from a ground game that averages 3.4 yards per carry and ranks 30th in rushing yards. Las Vegas is 41-21 UNDER the total on the road against offenses that average 24+ points. Miami's offense has cooled off after a blistering start averaging 20.6 points over the last three games. Defensively, the Dolphins rank 12th in total yards allowed and 12th on third down (36.84%). Miami is 99-71 UNDER the total as a home favorite and NFL home teams like the Dolphins that allow 24+ points per contest where the total is 42.5 to 49 are 79-41 UNDER the total after scoring 14 or fewer points in the last game. Play Las Vegas/Miami UNDER the total as a Max Play. 

This is the third game for Las Vegas, and they've looked good under new coach Josh McDaniels, topping the Jaguars (27-11) and Vikings (26-20). While with the Patriots, McDaniels rotated a lot of offensive linemen to increase depth and flexibility. He's doing the same thing with the Raiders, and against Minnesota, they had second-half drives of 10 and 15 plays, both resulting in TDs. QB Jarrett Stidham knows the McDaniels playbook as the two were in New England. Stidham was 10-of-15 for 68 yards last week while QB Nick Mullens was seven-of-nine for 94 yards and a touchdown. The Raiders are 14-of-32 on third down, and four-for-four (100%) on fourth down in two games. Miami has a new coach, as well, off of a 26-24 win over Tampa Bay though they have more areas to work on. The offensive line had a makeover and ran for just 49 yards, 3.5 yards per carry, as the offense had a total of 193 yards, kicked four field goals, and was two-of-10 on third down. Also, the defense surrendered 301 passing yards, even though Tom Brady didn't play. The posted total on this game is inflated due to last week's games. The Raiders have held their first two opponents to an average of 15.5 points. QB Derek Carr and Davante Adams haven't seen any action yet for Las Vegas and likely won't play in this game, so back the visitors in a low-scoring tilt. Play Las Vegas and UNDER the total.

Miami is in the classic situation of being ready to bounce back and redeem itself after an embarrassing performance its previous game, losing 35-0 to Buffalo. Of course, a lot of it was due to Tua Tagovailoa being knocked out of the game in the first quarter with a rib injury, and he is out for this game. Jacoby Brissett replaced him and completed 24 of 40 for 169 yards with one interception. Las Vegas has its own problems at quarterback as Derek Carr is listed as probable with an ankle injury, and backup Marcus Mariota is out indefinitely with a quadricep injury. Nathan Peterman will back up Carr. The Raiders had only 52 yards rushing on 25 carries against the Steelers, and running back Josh Jacobs (toe/ankle) is "very questionable" according to coach Jon Gruden. The Dolphins are 10-1 ATS their past 11 games after giving up at least 30 points their previous game and 6-0 ATS following any loss. Also, Miami is 12-5 ATS versus AFC teams and 10-4 ATS their past 14 games overall. The OVER is 7-3 in Miami's last 10 games following a loss, and they are also 6-1 OVER after an ATS loss. The Raiders have gone OVER their last five home games. Take the Dolphins and the OVER.

Las Vegas is out of the playoffs and the change in defensive coordinators didn't help much as the Raiders lost to the Chargers, 30-27 in overtime last Thursday. The Raiders defense is #25 in the NFL in total yards allowed and they are giving up 30.1 points per game, which ranks #29. The Raiders have lost four of their last five games and the only win was against the hapless Jets, which Las Vegas was fortunate to win. Miami has been one of the biggest surprises of the season as its rebuilding project is blossoming sooner than expected with a 9-5 record. The Dolphins have won three of their last four games following a 22-12 victory over New England on Sunday. Undrafted rookie RB Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida combined for 208 yards rushing, and Tua Tagovailoa completed 20 of 26 passes for 145 yards. Las Vegas QB Derek Carr is questionable for the Raiders with a groin injury, but it won't make much difference either way if his defense can't stop anyone. Miami is fighting for a playoff spot while the Raiders are playng out the string. Play the Dolphins on the moneyline.