Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Rams

Las Vegas has split its last two road games, including a 26-23 upset at Baltimore as a +8.5 dog. Los Angeles is favored, though the Rams and Panthers are the only NFC teams with just one win. The Rams have been hit hard by injuries. QB Matthew Stafford (3 TDs, 3 INTs) doesn't get much help from top running back Kyren Williams (3.8 ypc) on an offense that is 25th in rushing, 22nd in points (18.8 per game), and 17th on third down. They come off losses to Green Bay and Chicago scoring 19 and 18 points, plus had a 41-10 loss two home games ago to Arizona, part of a 1-4 ATS run. Play Las Vegas. 

Las Vegas has gotten over the hump and now is winning the close games after blowing several big leads earlier in the season. After defeating the Chargers 27-20 on Sunday, the Raiders have won and covered three in a row. In addition, the Raiders are in a similar position as last year when they had to win their final four games to eke into the playoffs. Derek Carr threw for 250 yards and Josh Jacobs enjoyed another great performance rushing for 144 yards on 26 carries and the defense stepped up again with cornerback Nate Hobbs returning from injury with a fumble recovery and Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby dominating the Los Angeles offensive line. Davante Adams had eight catches for 177 yards. The Raiders went UNDER for the fourth time in six games and they now face the Rams, who have lost six straight and are a total mess at this point in the season. The Rams are averaging only 16.8 points and Matthew Stafford is on injured reserve and John Wolford started against Seattle on Sunday and threw two interceptions and he is questionable for this game with a neck injury. Bryce Perkins thought he was going to get the start last week, but Sean McVay made a late decision to play Wolford. Las Vegas is 7-3 UNDER its past 10 road games and Los Angeles is 17-8 UNDER its past 25 home contests. The Raiders are 8-3 UNDER following a win. Take the Raiders on the moneyline and the UNDER.

Matthew Stafford will not play in the preseason for his new team, but Los Angeles has Devlin Hodges and Bryce Perkins for backups, and they combined for 18 of 29 for 127 yards and a touchdown in the Rams' 13-6 loss to the Chargers. Las Vegas played in front of its home fans for the first time and beat Seattle 20-7. Nathan Peterman played all but one play and finished 29 of 39 for 246 yards and a touchdown. The Seahawks did not play any starters on offense, so the Raiders' questionable defense has yet to be tested. Las Vegas went OVER its last five games last season while allowing an average of 31.8 points. Marcus Mariota was nursing a sore leg, but he could see action this week as the Raiders plan to use him in certain situations in the regular season in place of Derek Carr. Rams coach Sean McVay would like to see more offense in front of the home fans, and the Raiders are laying too many points in this preseason situation. Take the Rams and the OVER.

Los Angeles came oh so close to winning it all in 2018 and now the Rams are itching to get back to the Super Bowl with the core players still in place. Quarterback Jared Goff threw for 4,688 yards and 32 touchdowns with only 12 interceptions and he will be backed up by veteran signal-caller Blake Bortles, who has started 73 games in the NFL with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Brandon Allen and John Wolford are next in line and Allen has seen only practice squads while Wolford played in the Alliance of American Football league and was named Offensive Player of the Week twice. Wolford also played in last year's final preseason game completing 8-of-20 for 89 yards and an interception for the New York Jets. The Raiders begin their final season in Oakland and hope that Derek Carr can regain his form prior to his injury. They added Antonio Brown, but the Raiders still have a long way to go after finishing 4-12 and Jon Gruden still has yet to show he can deliver after being out of coaching for several years.  Mike Glennon is the backup QB and he has made 22 starts in his NFL career and the No. 3 QB is Nathan Peterman, who started four games for Buffalo with disastrous results. The Rams beat the Raiders 19-15 last year in preseason and Bortles has a big edge in this matchup of backup QBs. Play the Rams on the moneyline.

The Los Angeles Rams made a vast improvement last season and many expect this team to be a Super Bowl quality team in 2018. There is often a big difference playing with lower expectations as the Rams did a year ago. And it is very often a much more difficult task playing with high expectations. The Raiders signed John Gruden to a 10-year, $100 million contract. He immediately made some moves toward experience as the Raiders signed six players over 30 years old, as well as Doug Martin, who will be 30 on his next birthday. Gruden is known for the short passing West Coast offense and with a QB like Derek Carr, who gets rid of the ball as fast as anyone, I look for the Oakland attack to take a step forward this season. The Rams have a tough task opening on the road against a Gruden offense that will look a lot different than the Oakland offense from a year ago, and really no film on sets they will be running. Oakland is home, and has a "hidden" edge here with the Gruden offense; not seen in Oakland yet. Make the play on Oakland.