Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes won't play, but 34-year-old backup QB Blaine Gabbert is a veteran with 51 NFL TD passes. And this Kansas City defense is second in the NFL in yards allowed, third in points given up (17.6 per game), and Top 10 on third down (37.04%). The Chiefs are 41-21 ATS on the road against defenses that allow 24+ points per game. The Los Angeles defense has allowed the fourth-most yards and is ranked 17th on third down (38.43%). QB Justin Herbert is done for the season so QB Easton Stick gets another start. He has no TD passes in the last two games. The Chargers are 10-22 ATS at home after three straight defeats, 42-67 ATS at home after failing to cover, and 22-41 ATS at home versus winning teams in the second half of the season. Play Kansas City.

Los Angeles is one-dimensional on offense once again with the ground game averaging 3.9 yards per rush. They're 18th in rushing yards and 22nd in yards per rush. At least the defense is fourth in the NFL on third down (33.33%). Kansas City's defense has been great, fifth in total yards allowed, second in points allowed (14.7 per game), and ninth on third down (36%). The Chiefs are 45-23 UNDER the total at home against teams that allow 24+ points per game and 54-34 UNDER at home after two or more straight victories. They're also 37-20 UNDER versus pass defenses that give up 260+ yards passing yards per game while coach Andy Reid is 56-32 UNDER as home chalk. Take Los Angeles/Kansas City UNDER the total. 

Kansas City won its third straight with a 27-17 win over Jacksonville as Patrick Mahomes threw for 331 yards and four touchdowns and the Chiefs found yet another weapon in newly-acquired wide receiver Kadarius Toney, who had four catches for 57 yards and a TD and ran for 33 yards. The game went UNDER by 7.5 points for the third UNDER in four games for Kansas City, which has allowed an average of 20.2 points in that span. Los Angeles also has stayed UNDER three of four, including its 22-16 loss to San Francisco that went UNDER by 7.5 points. The Chargers were shut out in the second half and totaled only 51 yards rushing on 16 carries in the game. The Chargers have averaged 19 points their past four games. The Chiefs won the previous meeting 27-24 in September and it went UNDER and they are 6-1 UNDER their past seven November games. The Chargers are 3-10 ATS their past 13 November games and just 22-44-1 ATS their past 66 home games and their home stadium will sound more like Arrowhead Stadium than a home game as Charger fans usually are outnumbered. Los Angeles has not beaten a team that is currently above .500. Take the Chiefs and the UNDER as a Max Play.