Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans

Houston has clinched the AFC South, and it is locked into the No. 4 seed. Coach DeMeco Ryans says he plans to play the starters only because the team has looked so bad the past two weeks, and he wants to go into the postseason on a more positive note. Still, the Texans looked anything but playoff material, losing 31-2 to Baltimore on Christmas Day while getting outgained 432-211. C.J. Stroud threw for 185 yards with an interception, and Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry had their way with the Texans' defense, with Jackson throwing two TD passes and Henry racking up 147 rushing yards. Tennessee won the first meeting 32-27 as an 8-point underdog, and it held the Texans to just 40 yards rushing on 17 carries. The Texans have problems on the offensive line, averaging 21.8 points per game. Take the Titans.

Since giving up 52 points to Detroit, the Tennessee defense has allowed an average of 22.3 points in the last three games. They're a big underdog but get up to play divisional games, as most teams do. In their only AFC Central battle, they lost 20-17 to the Colts. QB Will Levis has started the last two games with 3 TDs and only one pick. He threw for 295 yards last week against Minnesota. He had a 98-yard score and a 51-yard TD pass that was called back because of an illegal formation penalty. Houston is playing a short week after winning at Dallas on Monday night. The Texans have lost three of five and have played four of their last six on the road. In their previous four games as a favorite of 5 points or more, Houston is 1-2-1 ATS. Play Tennessee. 

Houston is 9-6 UNDER this season and Tennessee is 10-5 UNDER as the Titans score 18.3 points per game compared to 21.9 for the Texans, who likely will get C.J. Stroud back from concussion protocol as he is back at practice. Houston has gone UNDER four of its past six games while averaging only 18.5 points. Tennessee also has two straight UNDERS following a 20-17 loss to Seattle on Sunday. Ryan Tannehill threw for 152 yards for the Titans against the Seahawks, who were held to 58 yards rushing on 20 carries even with Tennessee missing five defensive starters. The Texans had only 250 net yards against Cleveland and they are 5-2 UNDER at home and they and the Titans both are 7-3 UNDER their past 10 games versus AFC South teams. Tennessee is 21-7 UNDER after allowing fewer than 90 yards rushing its previous game and 9-4 UNDER overall following a loss. Play the UNDER as my Game of the Month.

Houston has covered the spread four of the past five meetings and this is the first one this season. The Texans come off an inexplicable 30-6 loss to the New York Jets after being tied 0-0 at the half. C.J. Stroud left in the fourth quarter and is still in concussion protocol and questionable for this game. Davis Mills will get the start if Stroud can't go and Mills has been prepping with the first-team offense all week. Mills started the last game of the 2022-23 season and threw for 298 yards and three touchdowns as the Texans staged a dramatic comeback victory against Indianapolis. Tennessee is playing on a short week after an incredible comeback of its own defeating Miami 28-27 on Monday night. Rookie Will Levis commandered two late TD drives and threw for 327 yards and a TD with an interception. Houston is 7-3 UNDER its past 10 games and Tennessee is 8-5 UNDER this season. The Titans are 1-5 ATS versus AFC South opponents and 4-12 ATS on Sundays after playing on Monday night. The Texans are 7-2 ATS after a loss and 7-2 UNDER after allowing fewer than 90 yards rushing their previous game. The Titans are 19-7 UNDER following a win and 14-5 UNDER their past 19 home games. Play the Texans as a Max Play and the UNDER.

Houston only has one win but they're still playing hard for this coaching staff. The Texans covered the last two games, losing 27-23 at Dallas as a +17 dog and a 30-24 loss to Kansas City as a +14 dog. NFL road dogs like Houston after seven or more straight losses are 67-31 ATS in the second half of the season. Tennessee is banged up with a lot of injuries on a five-game losing streak. QB Ryan Tannehill will miss the rest of the season so QB Malik Willis (0 TDs, 1 INTs, 44.7% completions) has been forced in. The offense is 24th on third down (36.21%), 25th in points scored, and 28th in total yards. And the Titans are 8-21 ATS against teams that accrue 42 or fewer penalty yards per contest in the second half of the season. Play Houston.