Houston Texans vs Minnesota Vikings

Two winless teams go at it in this one, although Minnesota came close against Tennessee, which got a 55-yard field goal by Stephen Gostkowski with under two minutes left to beat the Vikings 31-30 on Sunday. The Vikings did have several bright spots on offense as Dalvin Cook rushed for a career-high 181 yards and a touchdown, and rookie Justin Jefferson had seven receptions for 175 yards and a score. Kirk Cousins showed some improvement from the week before as he was 16 of 27 for 251 scores, although he threw two interceptions. Houston managed only 51 yards of total offense in the second half and lost 28-21 at Pittsburgh to fall to 0-3. The Texans have allowed an average of 31.7 points per game, and the offense has been lacking also. Deshaun Watson got off to a good start against the Steelers until they started putting more pressure on him, and that resulted in a meager second half for Houston. The Vikings are 8-2-1 ATS their last 11 October games, and they still are 39-14 ATS their last 53 games following a loss. The Texans are 3-8 ATS their last 11 home games, including 2-6 ATS as home favorites. Take the Vikings.

If you look at the major injuries these teams have suffered, it is unlikely that anyone would consider them to be a combined 7-1 entering this game. Minnesota lost QB Terry Bridgewater, and RB Adrien Peterson, while Houston lost one of the best defensive players in the NFL in J.J. Watt. The good news for the Texans is their pass defense is the best in the league, and the Minnesota running game is almost nonexistent without Peterson. QB Sam Bradford is not going to have as big of windows to throw through in this game, and his past presents that as very problematic for the Vikings QB. The Vikings also have a suspect kicking game as Blair Walsh, who blew a chip shot FG that sent the Vikings home from the playoffs last season, continues to struggle. He has missed three times in four games already, and that reveals some hidden value here. This game is going to be about field position, and neither team can afford a missed opportunity. This game looks statistically even to me, so the line is out of whack with the Vikings as a TD favorite. Take the points on Houston.

The Texans have been at home the entire month of October, not having taken to the road since September 28th. What that has done is allowed everyone to forget just how bad a road team the Texans have been. They are 11-3 in their last 14 at home, but road has treated them completely different. Houston is just 1-9 SU in their last 10 on the road, having been outscored 307-175! They have not produced more than 24 points in any of their last 10 on the road, while allowing less than 26 just once! Minnesota comes in off a bye after a wild shootout vs. Chicago. The 48 points allowed was certainly a departure from what Minnesota is normally about. They are flying under the radar now, as they allowed four defensive-special teams TDs and six turnovers their last two games. This team is better than they appear and as a result, they are not getting the look from the oddsmakers they should here. This one should be a TD plus win for the Vikes.