Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins

Miami has a winning home record but is 2-4 on the road. The Dolphins showed some life, winning three in a row with the return of QB Tua Tagovailoa. But the last two games haven't been impressive, needing OT to beat the Jets as a 6.5-point favorite and losing at Green Bay in their previous road game, 30-17. Miami is on a 9-15 straight-up run away from home. First-place Houston has won four of its six home contests. The defense is fifth in the NFL in yards allowed, 12th in points given up, and sixth on third down (34.71%). The Texans have won 10 of their last 15 home contests with the wagering value on the home team to win the game. Play Houston on the moneyline. 

This is a flat spot in the schedule for Miami, which has three tough road games in a row ahead of them following this game against the Texans, who haven't gotten many wins, but also haven't been getting blown out. Houston lost 23-10 to Washington, but one of the scores was a 37-yard interception return by cornerback Kendall Fuller. The Texans have allowed an average of only 14.3 points their past six games and they covered as a two-touchdown underdog against Philadelphia and they're getting about the same amount in this game. Miami won last year's meeting 17-9 and the Dolphins are just 2-5 ATS their past seven games mostly as small favorites and now they are asked to cover a big number. The Texans have gone UNDER their last two games and four of their past six and they are 9-3 UNDER their past 12 road games and 11-5 UNDER overall against teams with winning records. Miami is 21-7 UNDER after winning by at least 14 points its previous game and the Dolphins have stayed UNDER four of their past five home games. Play the Texans and the UNDER.

These two 1-7 teams battle on Sunday, and Houston has the edge in getting the money as the Texans are 4-4 ATS compared to 2-5-1 ATS for Miami. Houston managed a backdoor cover after being behind 38-7 and then scoring two touchdowns and a two-point conversion while recovering an onside kick in the meantime against the Rams. The Dolphins have lost seven in a row and are 1-5-1 ATS during that stretch, and they come off a 26-11 loss at Buffalo after losing two games against Jacksonville and Atlanta. Tua Tagovailoa went 21 of 39 for 205 yards with no TDs and an interception, and Miami rushed for only 68 yards on 23 carries. Davis Mills had one of his best games yet for the Texans, completing 29 of 38 for 310 yards and 2 touchdowns with 1 pick. The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS against losing teams and shouldn't be laying this many points against anyone. Tagovailoa is questionable with a finger injury. Take the Texans.

Houston won its fourth straight after starting the season 0-3 and Deshaun Watson showed toughness in completing 12-of-24 for 139 yards and a touchdown despite playing with a bruised lung and injured ribs. The Texans also have a great opportunity to get the running game going against the Dolphins, who allowed 248 rushing yards against Detroit, which normally is one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL. The Houston defense also has stepped up the last three games as opponents have averaged only 12 points per game, including Sunday's 20-7 win at Jacksonville. Ryan Tannehill still is out for Miami and Brock Osweiler likely will get the start after throwing for 239 yards against the Lions. The Dolphins also lost wide receiver Albert Wilson to a hip injury and he is out for this game. The Dolphins started the season 3-0 and have lost three of four since and they are 1-7 ATS their last eight road games going back to last season. Miami is 4-9 ATS its last 13 games against teams with winning records and 5-17 ATS its last 22 on artificial turf. These two teams appear to be going in different directions, so lay the points with the Texans.

The Miami Dolphins showed some signs of life after Dan Campbell took over the coaching reigns last week, as they breezed past Tennessee 38-10. But the Titans have some issues of their own, and I think some of the emotion of playing for a coach for the first time will not be present vs. the Texans this week. It is hard to hide from the facts, which say that since 2000 there have been 25 in-season coaching changes, and just four times (16%), did the new coach win his first two games. The Dolphins have another issue with this opponent, as they have never beaten the Texans, losing all seven meetings by an average margin of -6.2 points per game. Sometimes teams just don't matchup with each other. Houston has finally stabilized the QB position as Brian Hoyer has taken over, and has been productive. A stable passing game has benefitted Lamar Miller who ran for 113 yards a week ago and scored once. Miami is also chasing a dark shadow here, one that has left them at 13-37-1 ATS in their last 51 at home vs. a losing team. They are also 23-39 ATS when coming off an upset win as they come back down to earth.Take the points on Houston.