Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans

It almost looks like this total says that Jordan Love is out, but he has been throwing all week, and he was very close to being declared active last week. There is every indication he will play. The good news for Green Bay is Josh Jacobs took the game over for the Packer offense, and with Love coming back, the Packers appear to be set on offense with a huge running game and a solid passing game. Tennessee has had a pair of challenging games and has lost each by the same 24-17 score. The Packer defense forced three turnovers, and with Jacobs running or catching the ball being most of the Green Bay offense, the Colts had fewer opportunities to score. They were exposed vs. Philadelphia in Week 1, and I think Tennessee has more opportunities here for points. I like the OVER.

Green Bay's season was hanging by a thread before the Packers pulled out a 31-28 overtime victory over Dallas, coming back from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit. Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdown passes to Christian Watson and Mason Crosby kicked a game-winning 28-yard field goal as Rodgers finished 14 of 20 for 224 yards. The Packers also rushed for 207 yards. Green Bay has just three days off, but that may be a good thing as it doesn't want to lose the momentum from Sunday's win and the Packers are 6-1-1 ATS their past eight Thursday games. Tennesee managed to get by Denver 17-10, but the Titans are averaging only 18.4 points this season. Derrick Henry was held in check by the Broncos as he rushed for only 53 yards on 19 carries. Tennessee has gone UNDER six games in a row and by an average of 9.2 points. The Titans are 10-1 UNDER following a win and 6-0 UNDER following an ATS win. Green Bay has stayed UNDER five of 12 versus teams with winning records and it has allowed 21.6 points per game this season. Rodgers and the Packers have gotten their confidence back after Sunday's thrilling victory. Take the Packers on the moneyline and the UNDER.

The Tennessee Titans have a veteran QB rotation for the preseason with Marcus Mariota and Blaine Gabbert. More important is the offensive philosphy, which has totally changed. New head coach Mike Vrabel brings in offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, a rising star who loves to spread the field and attack. He was the Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator last season with QB Jared Goff and worked with Matt Ryan as Atlanta Falcons QB coach (2015-16). There are talented pieces all over this offense with second-year wideout Corey Davis, three-time Pro Bowl tight end Delanie Walker, and speedy newcomer RB Dion Lewis (Patriots). The 6-3 Davis had big games against the Rams and Pats and was the No. 5 overall pick in the 2017 draft. And the Titans have one of the best offensive lines in the game, anchored by two-time Pro Bowl left tackle Taylor Lewan. The offense is far ahead of the young defense that ranked #17 in points allowed, #25 against the pass. Last preseason they allowed 83 points in four games. They face a Green Bay offense with QBs Aaron Rodgers and Brett Hundley, as well as a new look, the return of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin. He held that same role from 2007 through 2011, as coach Mike McCarthy decided the time was right to overhaul the playbook and open things up. The offseason addition of five-time Pro Bowl tight end Jimmy Graham upgrades the attack. The defense, though, is the weak spot, ranking #23 against the pass, #26 in points allowed. The Packers are trying rookies Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson at the problematic cornerback position. All of which means a game with far more offense than defense. Take this one to finish OVER the total.

The Green Bay offense underachieved last season and some said it was because of the loss of WR Jordy Nelson. Well, Nelson is back this season and the Packers continue to be dysfunctional on offense at #19 in passing. Green Bay is 13-6 UNDER the total on natural grass, plus 8-3 UNDER against losing teams. Tennessee prefers to run the football, third in the NFL in rushing, which chews up yards and the clock. Tennessee is off a strong offensive game, but the Titans are 7-3 UNDER the total after scoring more than 30 points. This is too high of an NFL total as the Titans go ball-control and the Packers continue to be erratic on offense. Play this one to finish UNDER.