Denver Broncos vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Overlooked in Denver's 0-2 start is how well the defense is playing. They're ninth in total yards allowed, fourth against the pass, and 11th in points given up (19.5 per game). They've been in both games, losing by six and seven points, including covering in their only road game. The Broncos are on a 7-6 spread run, including covering the last time they were favored by +7 or more, a 24-22 win at Buffalo. Tampa Bay has been pass-happy under coach Todd Bowles. The ground game averages 3.6 yards per carry, and QB Baker Mayfield has been sacked six times. Denver has won four of the last five meetings with Tampa Bay and look for the visitors and their defense to keep this close. Play Denver. 

Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady knows how to pass and put up points in the thin Denver air. The offense is averaging 27 points, but the defense still has problems in the secondary, ranked #20 allowing 264.5 yards per contest, and #17 in points (25.5 pg). Both games this season have sailed OVER the total, part of a 14-4 run OVER for the Bucs. They are also 20-6 OVER the total on the road with that suspect defense. Denver just gave up 26 points to a team with an excellent passing attack and quarterback in a loss at Pittsburgh. The pass defense is #25 in the NFL surrendering 274 yards per game. The Broncos are 20-7 OVER the total at home after allowing 300-plus passing yards in the last game and NFL home teams off two or more spread covers in September games are 42-16 OVER the total. Play OVER the total.

Denver was wondering how the offense would be behind QB Trevor Siemian. Now at 3-0 and 27.8 points per game, I think they have that answer and it has looked better than last season. Tampa Bay have some issues as they must do without Doug Martin for a few weeks. Martin generated over 1,400 yards on the ground last season with six rushing TDs, and no other back scored last year on the ground for the Bucs but him. Jameis Winston continues to suffer growing pains, and has continued to make some bad decisions. He is down from 7.6 yards per attempt last season to 6.5 this year, and without a running game, goaing against a strong Denver defense, he could suffer in this contest. The Broncos are allowing just 5.1 yards per attempt, and with a running game delivering just 3.6 yards per carry, it could be a long day in Tampa Bay for the Bucs. Tampa Bay's secondary is yielding an unkind 8.2 yards per pass attempt, and Siemian has generated 7.7 for the Denver offense. This is going to be a tough game for the Bucs on both sides of the ball, and I see no reason why Denver doesn't go to 4-0 on the season with a comfortable road win. Lay the points on Denver.

Don't look now but the Tampa Bay Bucs look like a playoff team. They have won four of their last five with the only loss coming by a single point vs. Atlanta. The offense has come a long way since a year ago with the addition of Doug Martin in the backfield who has gone for over 1,000 yards already at 5.3 yards per carry. Josh Freeman has thrown fewer interceptions on the year than has Peyton Manning. The Bucs’ offense had gone for 112 points over a three-game stretch, but over the last three they have scored fewer points in each consecutive week. It isn't that they have stalled out they were just scoring at an unsustainable pace, but are still producing enough to win or stick around. Denver was also on an unsustainable offensive pace, scoring 30 or more in five straight weeks until their 17 points vs. Kansas City last week. Denver has won six straight games, but three of the last four have come by 8 points or less. We have faded them two weeks in a row as their stock was simply too high and it has worked out both times. We're doing it again here thanks to their win last week. The Denver defense has been coming on of late as well. So while the offense settles down to a more normal output, I expect that this game becomes a bit more defensive than most might think. Tampa Bay has thrived on the road vs. a team with a winning home record where they are a sizzling 14-3 ATS in their last 17, while the Broncos are just 16-34 ATS in their last 50 home games. These teams have made their offensive runs to build the total here, but look for this one to not make it out of the 40s. The Bucs are 9-2 ATS on the season, continually undervalued. And here they remain undervalued, getting a touchdown. Take the points on Tampa Bay and take the UNDER.