Denver Broncos vs Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers kicked their way to a win in their first game of the season. The Steelers used solid defense and six field goals to come away with an 8-point win in Atlanta. They now head to Denver to take on the Broncos, who Seattle beat on the road 26-20. The Broncos once enjoyed one of the biggest home-field advantages in the league, but as their teams seem not to have playoff talent, they have gone 27-31 SU at home over the last six seasons. The Steelers have a very good track record on the road, having completed eight of their last 10 seasons with a .500 or better mark on the road. The Steelers are able to compete on the road because they bring their defense. Pittsburgh has allowed 17 or fewer points in 10 of their last 14 road games, and I'm sure some of those FG's last week will turn into TD's this week. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

Denver lost in the final seconds 16-14 to Tennessee when Stephen Gostkowski made a 25-yard field goal spoiling a good defensive effort by the Broncos, who missed a chance in the second quarter when they failed to score a touchdown on three tries from the Titans one-yard line. Pittsburgh got a win over the Giants as Ben Roethlisberger finished 21 of 32 for 229 yards, but the Steelers still are only 4-9-1 ATS their last 14 games as favorites, including 2-5 ATS as home favorites. Denver is 4-0-1 ATS the last five meetings, and the Broncos have covered six of their last eight as underdogs. Also, Denver is 7-3 ATS its last 10 games overall and 5-1 ATS following a loss and it won the last meeting 24-17 in 2018. Drew Lock completed 22 of 33 passes for 216 yards with a touchdown and no picks against the Titans and he has proven to be a good scrambler as he has been sacked only five times in his six NFL starts. Denver will keep this one close. Grab the points with the Broncos.

Pittsburgh scored 14 fourth-quarter points to erase a 10-point deficit and defeat Jacksonville 20-16. Ben Roethlisberger redeemed himself after throwing three interceptions and scored on a keeper with eight seconds left for the Steelers' sixth straight win. The Steelers had no running game to speak of, but its pass defense held Blake Bortles to just 104 passing yards on 10-of-18 with no touchdowns. The game went UNDER by 11 points and the Steelers haven't allowed more than 21 points during the winning streak. Denver took advantage of numerous mistakes by the Chargers and won 23-22 and the Broncos now are 6-2-1 UNDER their last nine games. Denver is #19 in the NFL averaging 22.8 points per game and Pittsburgh has climbed to #6 defensively in yards allowed (326.8 per game) while allowing only 22.5 points per contest.  The Broncos are 0-7-1 ATS their last eight games after giving up at least 250 passing yards their previous game and the Steelers are 3-0-1 ATS their last four road games. Denver is 1-4-1 ATS its last six home games and 7-18-1 its last 26 versus AFC teams. The Steelers are 15-6 UNDER their last 21 against teams with losing records and they have gone UNDER 21 of their last 27 road games.  Take the Steelers and the UNDER.

An evening game in Denver in January means cold temperatures (in the 30s). It will also be a battle of conservative offenses and hard-hitting defenses with QBs that both have issues. Who's behind center? The better question might be, "Are the backup quarterbacks better than the starters?" It's been a strange season for the QBs of these teams. The Steelers have used multiple QBs because of injuries to Ben Roethlisberger, who is still banged up. He is likely to play but will be limited on his throwing options. There is talk in Pittsburgh of going to a short, safe passing game, while mixing in runs like they did against Cincinnati last week, to control the ball and the clock. Pittsburgh is 8-2 UNDER the total on the road and 11-4-1 UNDER against the AFC. They face a Denver team that has tried to force the run all season under first-year coach Gary Kubiak with mostly poor results as they lost star OT Ryan Clady even before the season began. They have never really recovered at #17 in rushing. The Steelers are outstanding up front against the run, ranked fifth, and can get after the QB with their zone blitzes. The Broncos don't want to get 39-year-old QB Peyton Manning (seven TDs, 19 INTs; four neck surgeries) killed so they will stick to their ball control, conservative approach. The strength of the Broncos is still the defense, one of the best in the NFL, third against the run, first against the pass, and fourth in points allowed. Denver is 6-2-1 UNDER the total at home and this shapes up as a game with more field goals than TDs. In their last 21 road games vs. good defenses (teams like Denver allowing under 4.8 yards per play), the Steelers are 16-5 to the UNDER. In his coaching career, Gary Kubiak is 27-13 UNDER when his team is favored in this range (3.5 to 9.5 points). With a healthy Big Ben I would love the Steelers here, but can't play them with his status. But, there's still a play here: take the UNDER.